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1
Executive summary
2 Introduction to mobile
games
Introduces the concept of mobile
games and provides a snapshot of the industry
Table 2.1 Sample games from
around the world
Table 2.2 Past and present in
mobile games
3 Myths of mobile games
exploded
Illustrates questions that need
to be asked regarding this industry to analyze its performance objective. Media
and the industry itself are often caught up in the numerous myths that pervade
current analysis
4 Headline figures for mobile
games
Provides an overview of what W2F
and industry analysts are saying regarding the potential market valuations for
the mobile games industry in the foreseeable future.
Table 4.1 Analyst market
valuations for mobile games 2001-2008
Figure 4.2 Graph of analyst
market valuations 2001-2008
Table 4.3 Market valuations for
ringtones and electronic gaming 2003
Figure 4.4 Average user spend
on mobile games by country 2003-2006
Figure 4.5 Mobile games market
spread internationally
5 Japan and Korea lead the
way
Highlights the advances made by
the Japanese and Korea markets, assessing the growth both in quantitative and
qualitative terms
Figure 5.1 Comparative sizes of
mobile games market 2003
Table 5.2 Sample images form
games available in Japan and Korea
Table 5.3 Aggressive forecasts
for mobile games users in Japan and Korea 2003
Figure 5.4 Regular mobile games
players by country 2003-2006
Figure 5.5 Detailed graph of
regular mobile games players by country 2003
Figure 5.6 Mobile games market
valuations for Korea 2001-2003
Figure 5.7 Number of regular
mobile games players in Japan 2003
Figure 5.8 Mobile games market
valuations for Japan 2001-2002
Figure 5.9 Mobile games market
valuations by country 2003-2006
Figure 5.10 Console shipments
per 1000 population by region 2002
Table 5.11 Console shipments by
region 2002
6 Telecommunications Industry
Evolution
Provides the backbone to all
industry analysis. Understanding the services sector for telecoms can only be
done on appreciating the needs of the mobile operators and how these needs
change over time. W2F finds that the growth of mobile games and other services
is inextricably linked to the developed of the telecoms industry as a
whole.
Figure 6.1 Theoretical
modelling of Telecoms Industry Evolution
Figure 6.2 The ARPU "gap"
resulting from declining voice revenues
Figure 6.3 Illustration of
mobile network operator strategies
Table 6.4 Mobile network
operator strategies as a function of evolution
Table 6.5 Comparison of
evolutionary stages for regions globally
Figure 6.6 Evolutionary stages
of global market regions plotted
7 Mobile games
publishers
Analyses the roles and
responsibilities associated with mobile games
publishing.
Figure 7.1 Theoretical
modelling of aggregation strategies for publishers
Table 7.2 Licensing fees paid
by electronic games publishers in 2002
8 Mobile games
developers
Analyses the roles and
responsibilities associated with mobile games
development
9 Mobile game market evolution
theory
Developed from the fundamental
theories of telecoms industry evolution, the mobile game market evolution
theory explains how the market will develop over time. Factors that affect
growth – from cost to profitability are discussed in detail in this
section
Figure 9.1 Comparison of
regional development plotted against evolution
curve
10 Barriers to
entry
Provides an overview of how
market supply will be affected by the inherent mobile games market barriers to
entry. For mobile games companies this section identifies how competition will
change over time and what strategies becomes available to the provider to
maintain long term profitability
10A Barriers to entry: Market
knowledge
Identifies the role of sector
knowledge in restricting market supply and how this will change over time,
particularly how this will keep electronic games publishers out of the
industry
Figure 10.1 Knowledge barriers
to entry as a function of market
evolution
10B Barriers to entry: Cost
of production
Examines how the costs of
production for mobile games will change over time and what the implications are
for publishers. Evidence from electronic games industry is used to illustrate
potential growth curves for cost and identify what contingency plans publishers
need to implement to stay in business
Table 10.2 Typical costs of
development for mobile and PC/console games
Figure 10.3 Costs of mobile
game production as a function of market
evolution
10C Barriers to entry:
Control of distribution channels
Provides an overview of how
distribution channels will change over time as a function of market evolution
and what this implies to publishers and developers. This section identifies the
growing importance of distribution strategies and provides the publisher with
advice as to how to remain competitive in the long term through effective
distribution
10D Barriers to entry:
Brand
Examines the role of the branded
game and the company’s own brand over time and how this change will force
strategic change in companies
10E Barriers to entry:
Economies of scale
Assesses the growing importance
of scale economies in the maturing market and how this will impact and
inevitably polarize the mobile games industry between market leaders and
dependents
Figure 10.4 Economies of scale
and polarization of market structure
11 Market evolution and
supply
Aggregates W2F theory presented
in this report to determine the current and future levels of competition within
the mobile games market
Figure 11.1 Aggregate barriers
to entry as a function of market evolution
Figure 11.2 Theoretical
modelling of mobile games supply and demand
curve
11B Market evolution and
revenue shares
Illustrates typical content
revenues share agreements, who gets what and how these agreements will change
over time as operators potentially shift their market
focus
Table 11.3 Typical revenue
shares in emerging mobile games market
Figure 11.4 Pie chart of
typical revenue shares in emerging mobile games market
Table 11.5 Typical revenue
shares in maturing mobile games market
Figure 11.6 Pie chart of
typical revenue shares in maturing mobile games
market
12 Mobile games and the
consumer
Answers the question of "who is
the consumer?". W2F research is presented to provide a theoretical model for
publishers, developers and operators to understand how to effectively segment
the market and target the product specifically for the desired
audience
Figure 12.1 Observable and
functional layers for consumer drivers in mobile
games
13 Potential market
size
Summarises the theoretical
grounding of this report in a straightforward modelling tool for assessing
potential market size
Table 13.1 Consumer profiles
and access populations as a function of
evolution
14 Summary of mobile games
market evolution
Provides a brief review of all
evidence presented in the theoretical section of this
report
Table 14.1 Summary of mobile
games market evolution
15 Evolution and the electronic
games industry
Examines the relationship between
mobile and electronic games. This section provides an overview of the
electronic games sector and a basic understanding of the drivers of this
sector. It examines how the mobile channel is relevant to the electronic games
sector and what this means for both channels in terms of competition and
opportunity
Figure 15.1 Market
capitalization of lead players in games industry 2003
Table 15.2 Electronic gaming
market values 2001-2004
Table 15.3 Market values for
mobile and electronic games markets 2001-2006
Figure 15.4 Value of mobile
channel to electronic games sector
Figure 15.5 Comparative mobile
and non-mobile games market values 2001-2006
Figure 15.6 % share of market
value of mobile and non-mobile
2001-2006
16 Conclusions
Figure 16.1 Traditional
industry "value chain"
17
Recommendations
18 Mobile Games
Statistics
Australia, Austria, Belgium,
Canada, China, Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hong
Kong, India, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, Mexico,
Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Philippines, Poland, Portugal, Russia,
Singapore, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey,
UK, USA
Figure 18.1 Mobile ownership by
country 2003-2006
Figure 18.2 Mobile penetration
by country 2003-2006
Figure 18.3 Java enabled
handset ownership by country 2003-2006
Figure 18.4 Number of mobile
gamers by region 2003-2006
Figure 18.5 Regular mobile
games players by country 2003-2006
Figure 18.6 Mobile games market
value by country 2003-2006
Figure 18.7 Comparative sizes
of mobile games market 2003
Figure 18.8 Comparative sizes
of mobile games market 2006
Figure 18.9 Average user spend
on games by country 2003-2006
19 Technology of mobile
games
Figure 19.1 Strengths and
weaknesses of J2ME
Figure 19.2 Strengths and
weaknesses of BREW
Figure 19.3 Strengths and
weaknesses of ExEn
Figure 19.4 Strengths and
weaknesses of Mophun
Figure 19.5 Strengths and
weaknesses of WGE
20 Case studies: Mobile Network
Operators
Vodafone
AT&T
Wireless
Orange
T-mobile
O2
NTT DoCoMo
Case studies: Games
Developers
in-Fusio
Namco
Gameloft
mForma
Digital Bridges
JAMDAT
Electronic Arts
THQ
Disney
Sega
Taito |