Sprint Wireless: A Critical Analysis of Key Financial and Market Performance Issues, Challenges and Successes



Table of Contents

Published April 2005. 93 Pages and 58 Charts
1. Introduction and Overview 8
Some of the key topics and questions addressed in this report 8
Uniqueness 9
Disclaimer and Sources of Information 9
2. Executive Summary 11
3. Subscriber Base Analysis 14
Section Overview 14
Section Summary 14
Changes in Sprint's Market Share 15
Differences in Sprint and U.S. Subscriber Base Growth 16
Growth of Wholesale, Affiliate, and Direct Subscriber Bases 17
Changes in Subscriber Base Composition 18
Changes in Segment Quarterly Sequential Growth Rates 19
Changes in Net Subscriber Additions 20
4. Service Usage Analysis 21
Section Overview 21
Section Summary 21
Changes in Monthly Subscriber Usage 22
Divergence in Growth of Direct Subscribers and Usage 23
5. Churn Analysis 24
Section Overview 24
Section Summary 24
Changes in Monthly Subscriber Churn 25
Subscriber Base Impact on Churn Rates 26
Churn Effect on Customer Lifetime 27
Effectiveness in Reducing Churn 28
6. Net Operating Revenue (NOR) Analysis 30
Section Overview 30
Section Summary 30
Changes in NOR by Components 31
Factors Contributing to Changes in NOR 33
Changes in the Percentages of NOR Components 34
Changes in per Subscriber NOR 35
7. Services Revenue Analysis 37
Section Overview 37
Section Summary 37
Variations in Services Revenue Dollars and Growth Rates 38
Changes in Data and Voice Components of Services Revenue 39
Changes in Services Revenue per Hour of Usage 40
Services Revenue Lost as a Result of Churn 42
Effects of Price Erosion and Competition on Services Revenue 43
Effectiveness of Revenue Loss Reduction Programs 45
Impact of Data Revenue on Reduction of Services Revenue Losses 47
8. Data Subscriber and Revenue Analysis 48
Section Overview 48
Section Summary 48
nalysis of Wireless Web and Vision Subscribers 49
Changes in Data Subscriber Composition 50
Changes in Wireless Web subscriber Growth 51
Differences in Growth of Vision Handsets and Vision Subscribers 52
Differences in Growth Rates for Vision Subscribers and Direct Subscribers with Vision Handsets 53
Changes in the Percentage of Direct Vision Subscribers 54
Impact of Changes in Data Revenue dollars, Growth Rates, and Subscribers 55
Changes in per Subscriber Data Service Revenue 56
Data Revenue Compared to Services Revenue 57
9. Average Revenue per User (ARPU) Analysis 58
Section Overview 58
Section Summary 58
Changes in ARPU Dollars & Growth Rates 59
Subscriber Growth Impact on ARPU 60
Effect of SG&A and COG&S on ARPU 61
Changes in Lifetime Subscriber ARPU 62
Changes in ARPU Voice and Data Components 63
10. SG&A and COG&S Expense Analysis 66
Section Overview 66
Section Summary 66
Changes in COG&S and SG&A Expenses 67
Changes in per Subscriber COG&S and SG&A Expenses 68
Effect of Changes in the Subscriber Base on per Subscriber COG&S Expenses 69
Effect of Changes in the Subscriber Base on per Subscriber SG&A Expenses 70
Effects of Changes in Subscriber Base Growth and COG&S and SG&A Expense Growth 71
Impact of Reductions in SG&A and COG&S Expenses on Subscriber Lifetime 72
11. CPGA Expenditure Analysis 73
Section Overview 73
Section Summary 73
CPGA Effectiveness 73
12. Capital Expenditure (CAPEX) Analysis 75
Section Overview 75
Section Summary 75
Effect of Subscriber Base Growth on Capex 76
Effects of Changes in Subscriber Base Composition on Capex 77
Changes in Capex as a Percent of NOR 78
13. Adjusted EBITDA Analysis 79
Section Overview 79
Section Summary 79
Changes in Adjusted EBITDA Dollars and Growth Rates 80
Changes in Adjusted EBITDA Components 81
Effects of Changes in NOR, SG&A and COG&S on Adjusted EBITDA 82
Impact of Changes in Subscriber Base Composition on Adjusted EBITDA 83
Variations in per Subscriber Adjusted EBITDA 85
14. Deficiencies in ARPU Metric 87
Section Overview 87
Section Summary 87
15. About Alexander Resources 90
16. About the Author 92
Biography of Jerry A. Kaufman 92

Table of Figures
Figure 1 Changes in the Percentage of Sprint's Share of all U.S. Cellular & PCS Subscribers, June 2000 to December 2003
Figure 2 Deviations in the Growth of Sprint's Subscriber Base against Growth of all U.S. Cellular & PCS Subscribers, June 2000 to December 2003
Figure 3 Growth of Wholesale, Affiliate, and Direct Subscriber Bases, 2001 to 2004
Figure 4 Changes in the Composition of Sprint's Subscriber Base, 2001 to 2004
Figure 5 Changes in Quarterly Sequential Growth Rates for Direct, Affiliate, and Wholesale Subscriber Segments, 2001 to 2004
Figure 6 Changes in the Number of Net Subscriber Additions, 2001 to 2004
Figure 7 Changes in Monthly Subscriber Usage, 2003 to 2004
Figure 8 Deviations in the Growth of Direct Subscribers and Usage, 2003 to 2004
Figure 9 Quarterly Subscriber Churn, 2001 to 2004
Figure 10 Quarterly Subscriber Churn and Direct Subscribers, 2001 to 2004
Figure 11 Effect of Churn on Subscriber Lifetime, 2001 to 2004
Figure 12 Evaluation of COG&S Programs to Control and Reduce Churn, 2001 to 2004
Figure 13 Evaluation of SG&A Programs to Control and Reduce Churn, 2001 to 2004
Figure 14 Net Operating Revenue Components: Services, Equipment, Wholesale and Affiliate Revenues by Quarter, 2001 to 2004
Figure 15 Changes in Services, Equipment, Wholesale and Affiliate Revenues, 2001 to 2004
Figure 16 Factors Contributing to Changes in NOR, 2001 to 2004
Figure 17 Services, Equipment, Wholesale and Affiliate Revenues Expressed as a Percentage of Net Operating Revenue, 2001 to 2004
Figure 18 Changes in Net Operating Revenue per Subscriber, 2001 to 2004
Figure 19 Variations in Quarterly Services Revenue Dollars and Growth Rates, 2001 to 2004
Figure 20 Data and Voice Components of Services Revenue, 2003 to 2004
Figure 21 Changes in Services Revenue per Hour of Usage, 2003 to 2004
Figure 22 Services Revenue Lost as a Result of Churn, 2001 to 2004
Figure 23 Effects of Price Erosion and Competition on Services Revenue, 2003 to 2004
Figure 24 Effectiveness of Programs for Reducing Services Revenue Losses due to Price Erosion and Competition, 2003 to 2004
Figure 25 Impact of Data Revenue on Reduction of Services Revenue Losses due to Price Erosion and Competition, 2003 to 2004
Figure 26 Growth of Wireless Web and Vision Subscribers, 2001 to 2004
Figure 27 Changes in the Composition of the Data Subscriber Base, 2001 to 2004
Figure 28 Growth Rates for Wireless Web Subscribers, 2001 to 2004
Figure 29 Changes in the Growth Rates of Subscribers with Vision handsets and Vision subscribers, 2003 to 2004
Figure 30 Comparisons of the Quarterly Sequential Growth Rates for Vision Subscribers to the Quarterly Sequential Growth Rates for Direct Subscribers with Vision Handsets, 2003 to 2004
Figure 31 Changes in the Percentage of Direct Subscribers with Vision Handsets who are Vision Subscribers, 2003 to 2004
Figure 32 Correlative Effects of Changes in Data Revenue dollars, Data Revenue Growth Rates, and Growth of Vision and Wireless Web Subscribers, 2003 to 2004
Figure 33 Changes in Monthly Data Services Revenue per Vision and Wireless Web Subscriber, 2003 to 2004
Figure 34 Quarterly Data Revenue Expressed as a Percentage of Total Services Revenue, 2003 to 2004
Figure 35 Changes in Average Revenue per User: Dollars & Growth Rates, 2002 to 2004
Figure 36 Impact of Subscriber Growth on ARPU, 2002 to 2004
Figure 37 SG&A and COG&S Effect on ARPU, 2001 to 2004
Figure 38 Lifetime Subscriber ARPU by Quarter, 2001 to 2004
Figure 39 ARPU Voice and Data Components by Percent, 2003 to 2004
Figure 40 ARPU Voice and Data Components by Dollars, 2003 to 2004
Figure 41 Quarterly COG&S and SG&A Expenses, 2001 to 2004
Figure 42 Changes in per Subscriber COG&S and SG&A Expenses, 2001 to 2004
Figure 43 Effects of Changes in the Composition of the Subscriber Base on per Subscriber COG&S Expenses, 2001 to 2004
Figure 44 Effects of Changes in the Composition of the Subscriber Base on per Subscriber SG&A Expenses, 2001 to 2004
Figure 45 Correlative Effects of Subscriber Base Growth and COG&S and SG&A Expenses Growth, 2001 to 2004
Figure 46 Impact of Reductions in SG&A and COG&S Expenses on Subscriber Lifetime, 2001 to 2004
Figure 47 Impact of Changes in CPGA Expenditures on the Growth Rate of Direct Subscriber Additions, 2001 to 2003
Figure 48 Capex Evaluated Against Subscriber Growth, 2001 to 2004
Figure 49 Correlative Effects of Changes in the Composition of the Subscriber Base and in Capex, 2001 to 2004
Figure 50 Changes in Capex as a Percent of NOR, 2001 to 2004
Figure 51 Adjusted EBITDA Dollars and Growth Rates, 2001 to 2004
Figure 52 Net Operating Revenue, SG&A, and COG&S Expressed as a Percent of Adjusted EBITDA, 2001 to 2004
Figure 53 Effects of Changes in NOR, SG&A and COG&S on Adjusted EBITDA, 2001 to 2004
Figure 54 Effects of Changes in the Composition of the Subscriber Base on Adjusted EBITDA, 2001 to 2004
Figure 55 Effects of Changes in the Composition of the Subscriber Base on Adjusted EBITDA Growth Rates, 2001 to 2004
Figure 56 Variations in per Subscriber Adjusted EBITDA, 2001 to 2004
Figure 57 Deficiencies in ARPU as a Financial and Market Gauge: ARPU Computed against Net Operating Revenue, SG&A, COG&S and Adjusted EBITDA, 2001 to 2004
Figure 58 Deficiencies in ARPU as a Financial and Market Gauge: ARPU Computed Against Services Revenue (per Usage Hour), 2003 to 2004



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